PAGASA says Tropical Depression Gener could hit land on Monday evening, September 16, or early Tuesday morning, September 17
MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Depression Gener maintained its strength as it headed for Northern Luzon on Monday afternoon, September 16.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a briefing past 5 pm that Gener was located 290 kilometers east of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan, moving northwest at only 10 kilometers per hour (km/h).
The tropical depression still has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h.
PAGASA said Gener could make landfall in Isabela or Aurora on Monday evening or early Tuesday morning, September 17, then cross mainland Luzon.
The weather bureau is not ruling out the possibility of Gener either intensifying into a tropical storm or slightly weakening before it hits land.
Below is PAGASA’s latest rainfall forecast for Gener. Floods and landslides are likely in areas affected by the tropical depression.
Monday afternoon, September 16, to Tuesday afternoon, September 17
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 millimeters): Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Aurora
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Cordillera Administrative Region, rest of Cagayan Valley, Ilocos Norte, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Quezon, Rizal
Tuesday afternoon, September 17, to Wednesday afternoon, September 18
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Mountain Province, Kalinga, Ifugao, Aurora, Polillo Islands
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Region, rest of Cagayan Valley, rest of Cordillera Administrative Region, rest of Central Luzon
Wednesday afternoon, September 18, to Thursday afternoon, September 19
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Apayao
As of 5 pm on Monday, Signal No. 1 remains raised in the following areas, which will have strong winds due to the tropical depression:
- Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
- Isabela
- Quirino
- Nueva Vizcaya
- Apayao
- Kalinga
- Abra
- Ifugao
- Mountain Province
- Benguet
- Ilocos Norte
- Ilocos Sur
- La Union
- Pangasinan
- Zambales
- Tarlac
- Nueva Ecija
- Aurora
- northern part of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta, Real) including Polillo Islands
After crossing Luzon, Gener may emerge over the coastal waters of La Union or Pangasinan late Tuesday morning or noon, then move over the West Philippine Sea until Wednesday, September 18.
Gener’s exit from the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) could happen between late Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning.
Gener also continues to enhance the southwest monsoon or habagat, which will trigger more rain in the coming days. Here is the updated rainfall forecast for the enhanced southwest monsoon:
Monday afternoon, September 16, to Tuesday afternoon, September 17
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Palawan, Occidental Mindoro, Aklan, Antique, Negros Occidental
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): rest of Mimaropa, Bicol, rest of Western Visayas, rest of Negros Island Region
Tuesday afternoon, September 17, to Wednesday afternoon, September 18
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Palawan, Occidental Mindoro, Aklan, Antique, Negros Occidental
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Metro Manila, Calabarzon, rest of Mimaropa, Bicol, rest of Western Visayas, rest of Negros Island Region, Central Visayas
Wednesday afternoon, September 18, to Thursday afternoon, September 19
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Occidental Mindoro
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Metro Manila, Zambales, Bataan, rest of Mimaropa, Aklan, Antique
On Monday evening, Metro Manila was still seeing scattered rain and thunderstorms caused by the monsoon.
The enhanced southwest monsoon is also bringing strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:
Monday, September 16
- Batanes, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Davao Region
Tuesday, September 17
- Batanes, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Mindanao
Wednesday, September 18
- Zambales, Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Mindanao
For coastal waters, PAGASA released a new gale warning at 5 pm on Monday, still due to the southwest monsoon. Rough to very rough seas, with waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high, are expected in the western and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon; the western, eastern, and central seaboards of the Visayas; and the western, northern, and eastern seaboards of Mindanao. Travel is risky for small vessels.
Up to rough seas are also seen in Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northern seaboards of the Ilocos Region and Cagayan Valley (waves 1.5 to 3.5 meters high), as well as the eastern seaboard of Bicol, the seaboard of the Visayas outside gale warning areas, and the eastern seaboards of Caraga and the Davao Region (waves 1.5 to 3 meters high).
The remaining seaboards of the Philippines not covered by the gale warning will have up to moderate seas, with waves up to 2.5 meters high.
ALSO ON RAPPLER
Meanwhile, like Gener, Tropical Storm Pulasan maintained its strength as it moved outside PAR on Monday afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.
Pulasan was located 2,190 kilometers east of Central Luzon at 3 pm on Monday, heading west northwest at a fast 35 km/h.
PAGASA Weather Specialist Aldczar Aurelio said the tropical storm may enter PAR on Tuesday evening. It would be given the local name Helen.
Pulasan or the potential Helen will remain far from landmass, and may quickly exit PAR on Wednesday morning — likely following a track similar to that of Tropical Storm Ferdie (Bebinca).
But it might also enhance the southwest monsoon, just like Ferdie and Gener.
Gener is the Philippines’ seventh tropical cyclone for 2024, and the third for September. If Pulasan enters PAR, it would be the eighth for the year, and the fourth for the month. – Rappler.com
