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Typhoon Julian (Krathon) is still expected to hit Taiwan, which is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility, but PAGASA now says the typhoon may ‘move erratically’ after landfall
MANILA, Philippines – Julian (Krathon) was downgraded from a super typhoon into a typhoon as it continued to move slowly outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in the early hours of Wednesday, October 2.
In a briefing past 5 am on Wednesday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Julian’s maximum sustained winds decreased further from 185 kilometers per hour to 165 km/h. At its peak, it had maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h.
Julian’s gustiness is also down to 205 km/h from the previous 230 km/h.
The typhoon was last spotted 280 kilometers west northwest of Itbayat, Batanes, slowly moving northwest.
Julian had exited PAR at 9 am on Tuesday, October 1, but it is expected to reenter and head for Taiwan, which is within PAR.
The typhoon is still seen to turn northeast toward Taiwan’s southwestern coast on Wednesday, where it could make landfall on Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning, October 3.
But PAGASA noted that there is a “significant change” in Julian’s projected track. After making landfall, the typhoon is now expected to “move erratically over the landmass and coastal waters of Taiwan before emerging over the Taiwan Strait” on Friday evening, October 4, or early Saturday morning, October 5. Then it could exit PAR again on Saturday, and move southwest over the Taiwan Strait and the waters south of mainland China.
Julian was previously seen to emerge over the sea east of Taiwan after making landfall.
PAGASA said it is not ruling out further “considerable shifts” in the typhoon’s track.
The weather bureau added that Julian will continue to weaken due to the “incoming northeasterly wind flow over the East China Sea and Taiwan Strait” as well as the “lower ocean heat content in its vicinity, which is related to upwelling of cooler waters caused by its slow movement for nearly two days.”
“Frictional effects” once Julian hits Taiwan’s mountainous terrain will also contribute to the weakening trend, and eventually, it may just become a remnant low during the weekend.
While Julian is weakening, Batanes and Babuyan Islands will still have moderate to heavy rain (50 to 100 millimeters) from the typhoon on Wednesday.
Julian continues to bring strong winds, too. Signal No. 1 is in effect for fewer areas as of 5 am, particularly the following:
- Batanes
- Babuyan Islands
- northern and western parts of Ilocos Norte (Pasuquin, Sarrat, Paoay, Bangui, Vintar, Burgos, Pagudpud, Bacarra, Currimao, Adams, Pinili, San Nicolas, Dumalneg, Laoag City, Badoc, Batac City)
- northwestern part of mainland Cagayan (Santa Praxedes, Sanchez-Mira, Claveria)
The highest tropical cyclone wind signal raised due to Julian was Signal No. 4 in Batanes and part of Babuyan Islands. While Julian did not make landfall, it had passed very close to these areas.
For coastal waters, very rough seas will persist in the seaboard of Batanes (waves up to 5 meters high) as well as the seaboard of Babuyan Islands and the northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte (waves up to 4.5 meters high). Travel is risky for most types of vessels.
Moderate to rough seas are expected in the remaining seaboard of Ilocos Norte (waves up to 4 meters high), the remaining seaboards of the Ilocos Region (waves up to 3.5 meters high), the northern seaboard of mainland Cagayan and the seaboard of Zambales (waves up to 3 meters high), and the remaining seaboard of Cagayan and the seaboard of Isabela (waves up to 2.5 meters high). Small vessels should not venture out to sea.
Julian is the Philippines’ 10th tropical cyclone for 2024 and sixth tropical cyclone for September alone. – Rappler.com
