Nika now a severe tropical storm as it undergoes rapid intensification

Severe Tropical Storm Nika (Toraji) is expected to intensify further into a typhoon on Sunday, November 10. Signal No. 2 is raised for the first time.

MANILA, Philippines – Nika (Toraji) strengthened from a tropical storm into a severe tropical storm while undergoing rapid intensification before dawn on Sunday, November 10.

Nika’s maximum sustained winds increased from 75 kilometers per hour to 100 km/h, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in a bulletin past 5 am on Sunday. Its gustiness is now up to 125 km/h from 90 km/h.

Nika is now expected to intensify into a typhoon on Sunday.

The severe tropical storm was last spotted 690 kilometers east of Infanta, Quezon, at 4 am. It accelerated, moving west northwest at a relatively fast 30 km/h from the previous 20 km/h.

PAGASA expects Nika to make landfall in Isabela or Aurora on Monday afternoon, November 11. But the weather bureau emphasized that “hazards may still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point or forecast confidence cone,” so Luzon in general must prepare for the tropical cyclone.

Before hitting land, Nika may reach its peak intensity. “A short period of weakening” is expected when Nika crosses the landmass of Luzon, and it could be downgraded back to a severe tropical storm, but it may slightly intensify once over the West Philippine Sea.

PAGASA has already raised Signal No. 2 due to Nika for the first time. Below are the areas covered by tropical cyclone wind signals as of 5 am on Sunday.

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• southeastern part of Isabela (Dinapigue)
• northern part of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan)

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• southern part of Cagayan (Tuguegarao City, Peñablanca, Enrile, Solana, Iguig)
• rest of Isabela
• Quirino
• Nueva Vizcaya
• southeastern part of Kalinga (Tabuk City, Rizal, Tanudan)
• eastern part of Mountain Province (Paracelis, Natonin, Barlig)
• Ifugao
• eastern part of Pangasinan (San Nicolas, Tayug, Natividad, San Quintin, Umingan)
• rest of Aurora
• Nueva Ecija
• northeastern part of Pampanga (Candaba, Arayat)
• northern and eastern parts of Bulacan (Norzagaray, San Miguel, San Ildefonso, San Rafael, Doña Remedios Trinidad, Angat)
• eastern part of Quezon (Calauag, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Pitogo, San Andres, Buenavista, San Francisco, Pagbilao, Infanta, Lopez, Catanauan, Mulanay, Unisan, General Luna, Plaridel, Quezon, Alabat, Sampaloc, Padre Burgos, Macalelon, Mauban, Perez, Agdangan, Gumaca, Atimonan, Real, San Narciso, General Nakar) including Polillo Islands
• Camarines Norte
• Camarines Sur
• Catanduanes
• northeastern part of Albay (Malinao, Tiwi, Bacacay, Tabaco City, Malilipot, Rapu-Rapu)

The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal due to Nika is now Signal No. 4, since it is projected to become a typhoon.

The northeasterly windflow is also seen to bring strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:

Sunday, November 10

• Batanes, Babuyan Islands, northern Cagayan, Ilocos Norte

Monday, November 11

• Batanes, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes

Tuesday, November 12

• Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands

PAGASA also released an updated rainfall advisory at 5 am on Sunday. Three provinces in the region of Bicol are facing moderate to heavy rain from Nika during the day. All should be on alert for floods and landslides.

Sunday, November 10

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 millimeters): Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur

Monday, November 11

• Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 mm): Isabela, Cagayan, Aurora
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Abra
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Benguet, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur

Tuesday, November 12

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, Nueva Ecija, Quirino, Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora

In addition, there is now a minimal to moderate risk of storm surges in Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Zambales, Aurora, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, and Catanduanes in the next 48 hours.

ALSO ON RAPPLER

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With Nika gaining strength, sea conditions are expected to worsen in the next 24 hours.

Up to very rough seas (travel is risky for all vessels)

• Eastern seaboards of Isabela and northern Aurora; northern seaboard of Camarines Norte – waves up to 4.5 meters high

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; northern seaboard of Camarines Sur – waves up to 4 meters high
• Northern seaboard of Catanduanes – waves up to 3.5 meters high
• Remaining seaboard of Aurora; eastern seaboards of Babuyan Islands, mainland Cagayan, northern Quezon, and Catanduanes – waves up to 3 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Seaboards of Batanes and Ilocos Norte; remaining seaboards of Babuyan Islands and mainland Cagayan; eastern seaboards of Camarines Sur, Albay, and Sorsogon; remaining seaboards of Catanduanes; northern seaboard of Northern Samar – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Remaining western and eastern seaboards of Luzon; eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas and Dinagat Islands – waves up to 2 meters high

Nika is the Philippines’ 14th tropical cyclone for 2024, and the second for November, coming immediately after Typhoon Marce (Yinxing), which battered Northern Luzon.

It could leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday afternoon, November 12.

Meanwhile, the low pressure area (LPA) outside PAR was last spotted 2,365 kilometers east of northeastern Mindanao at 4 am on Sunday.

The LPA now has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression within 24 hours.

PAGASA Weather Specialist Grace Castañeda said the weather disturbance may enter PAR by early Tuesday morning.

It may head for Cagayan Valley, but there is still high uncertainty regarding the forecast, according to Castañeda. Updates will be given in the coming hours and days. – Rappler.com