Super typhoon status not ruled out as Ofel further intensifies

Santa Ana, Cagayan, is under Signal No. 3 due to Typhoon Ofel (Usagi) as of 11 pm on Wednesday, November 13

MANILA, Philippines – Signal No. 3 was raised for the municipality of Santa Ana in Cagayan province as Typhoon Ofel (Usagi) further strengthened late Wednesday evening, November 13.

Ofel now has maximum sustained winds of 150 kilometers per hour from the previous 130 km/h, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in a bulletin released past 11 pm on Wednesday. Its gustiness is now up to 185 km/h from 160 km/h.

PAGASA explained that Ofel is now in an area where the environment is currently “favorable” for tropical cyclone intensification. Due to this, the weather bureau is not ruling out super typhoon status for Ofel.

The typhoon was last spotted 355 kilometers east of Baler, Aurora, or 295 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora, at 10 pm on Wednesday. It slightly accelerated, moving west northwest at 25 km/h from 20 km/h.

Here is the updated list of areas under tropical cyclone wind signals:

Signal No. 3

Storm-force winds (89 to 117 km/h), moderate to significant threat to life and property

• northeastern part of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana)

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• southern part of Batanes (Mahatao, Uyugan, Basco, Ivana, Sabtang)
• rest of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• northern and eastern parts of Isabela (Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan, San Pablo, Cabagan, Santa Maria, Santo Tomas, Tumauini, Ilagan City)
• Apayao
• northern part of Ilocos Norte (Carasi, Vintar, Burgos, Adams, Pagudpud, Bangui, Dumalneg)

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• rest of Batanes
• rest of Isabela
• Quirino
• northern part of Nueva Vizcaya (Kasibu, Ambaguio, Solano, Bayombong, Quezon, Bagabag, Diadi, Villaverde)
• Kalinga
• Abra
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• rest of Ilocos Norte
• northern part of Ilocos Sur (Sinait, Cabugao, San Juan, San Ildefonso, Magsingal, Santo Domingo, Bantay, San Vicente, Vigan City, Caoayan, Santa Catalina, Santa, Nagbukel, Narvacan)
• northern part of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao)

If Ofel remains a typhoon, the highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal would be Signal No. 4. But if it becomes a super typhoon, Signal No. 5 could be raised.

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PAGASA maintained its rainfall outlook for Ofel, stressing that floods and landslides are expected.

Wednesday evening, November 13, to Thursday evening, November 14

• Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 millimeters): Cagayan, Isabela
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Apayao, Kalinga
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora

Thursday evening, November 14, to Friday evening, November 15

• Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 mm): Batanes, Cagayan
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Ilocos Norte
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Apayao, Abra

In the next 48 hours, there is also a moderate to high risk of “life-threatening” storm surges “with peak heights reaching 1 to 3 meters” in Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, and northern Aurora.

Ofel is still projected to make landfall in Cagayan or Isabela on Thursday afternoon, November 14, possibly during its peak intensity.

Then it may emerge over the Babuyan and Balintang channels on Friday, November 15, “while making another landfall or passing close to Babuyan Islands.”

Afterwards, Ofel could turn northeast on Saturday, November 16, toward the sea east of Taiwan. It may start weakening once it reaches Taiwan, which is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Ofel might leave PAR on Sunday evening, November 17. PAGASA noted, however, that changes in the forecast track remain possible.

PAGASA also updated this outlook for sea conditions in the next 24 hours:

Up to very rough or high seas (travel is risky for all vessels)

• Eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan; seaboard of Babuyan Islands – waves up to 10 meters high
• Seaboards of Isabela; remaining seaboard of mainland Cagayan – waves up to 8 meters high
• Seaboard of northern Aurora – waves up to 5 meters high

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Seaboard of Batanes – waves up to 4.5 meters high
• Northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes and Polillo Islands; remaining seaboard of Aurora; seaboards of Camarines Norte and northern Quezon; northern seaboards of Ilocos Norte and Camarines Sur – waves up to 3.5 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Seaboard of northeastern Quezon including the rest of Polillo Islands; eastern seaboards of Albay and Sorsogon; northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Remaining seaboard of Ilocos Region; remaining seaboard of Catanduanes; eastern seaboards of Camarines Sur and Eastern Samar; seaboard of Kalayaan Islands – waves up to 2 meters high

Ofel is the Philippines’ 15th tropical cyclone for 2024, and the third for November, after Marce (Yinxing) and Nika (Toraji), which both peaked as typhoons and pummeled Northern Luzon.

Aside from Ofel, PAGASA continues to monitor Tropical Storm Man-yi, which is seen to enter PAR by Thursday evening. Story on Man-yi to follow here. – Rappler.com