Cagayan, Isabela to see torrential rain as Typhoon Ofel strengthens

The maximum sustained winds of Typhoon Ofel (Usagi) increase to 130 km/h early Wednesday evening, November 13

MANILA, Philippines – Typhoon Ofel (Usagi) intensified over the Philippine Sea early Wednesday evening, November 13, with its maximum sustained winds increasing from 120 kilometers per hour to 130 km/h.

The typhoon’s gustiness is now up to 160 km/h from the previous 150 km/h, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in its 8 pm bulletin on Wednesday.

As of 7 pm, Ofel was located 425 kilometers east of Baler, Aurora. It slowed down a bit, moving west northwest at 20 km/h from 25 km/h.

The typhoon is bringing rain to parts of Northern Luzon and to Aurora in Central Luzon, ranging from moderate to torrential. Floods and landslides are expected.

Wednesday evening, November 13, to Thursday evening, November 14

• Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 millimeters): Cagayan, Isabela
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Apayao, Kalinga
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora

Thursday evening, November 14, to Friday evening, November 15

• Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 mm): Batanes, Cagayan
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Ilocos Norte
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Apayao, Abra

As for tropical cyclone wind signals, several areas were upgraded to Signal No. 2 at 8 pm on Wednesday.

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• northern and eastern parts of Isabela (Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan, San Pablo, Cabagan, Santa Maria, Santo Tomas, Tumauini, Ilagan City)
• Apayao
• northern part of Ilocos Norte (Carasi, Vintar, Burgos, Adams, Pagudpud, Bangui, Dumalneg)

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• Batanes
• rest of Isabela
• Quirino
• northern part of Nueva Vizcaya (Kasibu, Ambaguio, Solano, Bayombong, Quezon, Bagabag, Diadi, Villaverde)
• Kalinga
• Abra
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• rest of Ilocos Norte
• northern part of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao)

The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal due to Ofel is Signal No. 4.

In the next 48 hours, there is also a moderate to high risk of “life-threatening” storm surges reaching 1 to 3 meters in Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, and northern Aurora.

PAGASA still expects Ofel to make landfall in Cagayan or Isabela while at its peak intensity on Thursday afternoon, November 14, then emerge over the Luzon Strait on Friday, November 15.

Afterwards, Ofel may pass close to Cagayan province’s Babuyan Islands, or make another landfall there, then turn northeast on Saturday, November 16, toward the sea east of Taiwan. Taiwan is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

But PAGASA said Ofel’s track may still change, especially the part where the typhoon will be turning northeast.

The weather bureau added that Ofel’s landfall “will trigger a weakening trend,” which may persist until it leaves PAR. Its exit from PAR could be on Monday, November 18.

PAGASA maintained the following outlook for sea conditions in the next 24 hours:

Up to very rough or high seas (travel is risky for all vessels)

• Eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan; seaboard of Babuyan Islands – waves up to 10 meters high
• Seaboards of Isabela; remaining seaboard of mainland Cagayan – waves up to 8 meters high
• Seaboard of northern Aurora – waves up to 5 meters high

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Seaboard of Batanes – waves up to 4.5 meters high
• Northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes and Polillo Islands; remaining seaboard of Aurora; seaboards of Camarines Norte and northern Quezon; northern seaboards of Ilocos Norte and Camarines Sur – waves up to 3.5 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Eastern seaboard of mainland Quezon including the rest of Polillo Islands, Albay, and Sorsogon; northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Remaining seaboard of Ilocos Region; seaboard of Kalayaan Islands; eastern seaboards of Camarines Sur and Eastern Samar; remaining seaboard of Catanduanes – waves up to 2 meters high

ALSO ON RAPPLER

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Ofel is the Philippines’ 15th tropical cyclone for 2024, and the third for November, after Marce (Yinxing) and Nika (Toraji), which both peaked as typhoons and pummeled Northern Luzon.

Aside from Ofel, PAGASA continues to monitor Tropical Storm Man-yi, which remains outside PAR but may hit Luzon during the coming weekend.

Man-yi was located 1,900 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas at 3 pm on Wednesday. It slowed down, moving west at 15 km/h from 30 km/h.

The tropical storm maintained its strength, with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.

PAGASA said Man-yi could intensify and possibly be a typhoon by the time it enters PAR on Thursday evening. It will be given the local name Pepito.

The weather bureau’s next advisory on Man-yi, which will provide more details, is expected at around 11 pm on Wednesday.

– Rappler.com