COTABATO CITY, Philippines – Mohagher Iqbal said he was surprised by Congress’ proposals to postpone the election in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).
The high-ranking official of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and minister of education of the BARMM said there were no consultations with them before Senate President Francis Escudero filed a bill to postpone next year’s election.
“We did not expect that to happen. On various occasions, the Chief Minister and President Marcos have discussed that. The President said that we will go for elections, and the reason he cited is very important: ‘Your legitimacy as a member of parliament is enhanced because you are directly elected by the people,’” he said.
“We are ready for the 2025 elections. All systems go. Frankly, I do not understand, we do not understand, the reason why all of a sudden there was a move in Congress to postpone the elections in the BARMM,” he said.
Iqbal also cited a meeting between the Commission on Elections (Comelec) and BARMM Chief Minister Ahod “Al Haj Murad” Ebrahim, where he said the poll body issued instructions for the election of 73 parliament seats to proceed, minus the seven seats allocated to Sulu. (READ: Sulu’s exit shakes up Bangsamoro: 5 scenarios for the 2025 polls)
Iqbal sat down for an interview with PCIJ executive director Carmela Fonbuena in Cotabato City on November 6, in the middle of the filing of certificates of nomination and candidacy for the May 2025 BARMM parliamentary election.
Iqbal said he believed it is more advantageous for MILF’s political party, the United Bangsamoro Justice Party, if the election pushes through next year. He was confident the UBJP would win a majority of seats in next year’s parliamentary election and keep the BARMM leadership.
“When you are elected by the people, you have more legitimacy. But when we are appointed by the President, although he has that appointment power, our authority is less,” he said.
Here are excerpts from the interview:
BARMM issued a statement on November 5 to say it is leaving the matter of postponing the election for Congress to decide. Could you not take a clear position to support it or oppose it?
While the BARMM in general and I, as a member of parliament, can take a position, how we wish that election would push through. We also understand that Congress has that power to postpone the election.
But our understanding is that, when the Supreme Court decided to rule on the Sulu petition to be excluded from the BARMM, there would be no problem about that. In fact, the Comelec, in a meeting with the Chief Minister, said that we can proceed with 73 seats [or] minus seven seats from Sulu. Our preparation was not interrupted.
What are the implications of a possible one-year postponement of the BARMM poll?
One implication is that, when you are elected by the people, you have more legitimacy. But when we are appointed by the President, although he has that appointment power, our authority is less.
Sovereignty resides in the people.
We respect what the law says. The BARMM government is under the general supervision of the President. But in terms of the exercise of our powers in the BARMM, it’s more entrenched [if the election pushes through] because we are already elected by the people.
Can MILF’s political party, the United Bangsamoro Justice Party, win a majority of parliament seats if the election pushes through next year?
Under the current equation, I think we will win about 70% of the votes [for regional political parties].
If elections were to be held today, we will win 70% of the votes in Tawi-Tawi because the governor is with us. We will win 70% of Basilan because the governor is with us. We will win 70% or 80% of Cotabato City because the mayor is with us. Then we will win around 80% in Maguindanao del Norte because the governor is with us, and only two mayors belong to the opposition. Maguindanao del Sur will be 50-50 because the incumbent governor is running with another party. And then Lanao del Sur, I think, will be around 50-50 or 40-60 against us.
If we look at the totality of that, maybe we can win 70% [of the regional party seats]. Plus the districts. Thirty-two minus seven is 25. I think we will win around one half of that.
UBJP will not need a coalition to get a majority?
I don’t think we need a coalition. And for the sectoral representatives, there are eight [seats]. I think we will win seven out of the eight. We are very optimistic.
(UBJP’s rival, the BARMM Grand Coalition, also claimed it can win a majority of the parliament seats in next year’s election. BGC is a coalition of the political parties of four incumbent BARMM governors.)
Do you agree with political observers that the chances of UBJP winning a majority improved after the exclusion of Sulu from BARMM?
Precisely, yes. That’s correct.
Would the rival party, BARMM Grand Coalition (BGC), have a better chance if Governor Sakur Tan was a candidate?
It’s a tough fight, realistically speaking. It’s going to be a tough fight because Sulu is practically under the control of Sakur Tan. That’s a reality. While, probably, the exclusion of Sulu was not intended to exclude Sakur, that is the consequence. On the surface, I think it’s more advantageous for us if the elections are held in 2025.
What are the expectations if the bill is passed into law? What changes will happen?
The positive side to that is, because very few of us are running in the local positions, we can focus on helping our candidates in the provinces and municipalities. And then the resources in our hands can be used in the next election. Resources are very important.
Will UBJP still win next year if the election is postponed?
If most of our candidates win the local elections — in the provinces and municipalities [in 2025] — we’ll have more chances of winning in 2026.
The bill doesn’t talk only about resetting the elections. Section 2 of the bills says the current members of the BTA are “deemed resigned” upon the effectivity of the law. President Marcos will appoint or reappoint 80 new members of the BTA.
The Bangsamoro Organic Law says that the transition is going to be MILF-led. So we are going to submit 41 names, including the Chief Minister. It follows that maybe the same people will be reappointed, or maybe there are changes. Even if we submit, expect that there are changes. But we expect that the law will be followed.
For the MILF nominees, can we expect the same composition? And because you have the majority, the Chief Minister will remain as chief minister?
I cannot say with certainty that that will be the case. But our hope is that the nominees of the MILF should be taken as is. Because that’s what the law says. It is going to be MILF-led, meaning the Chief Minister will come from the MILF and majority of the members of parliament will be coming from the MILF.
Anything can happen.
Like what?
Anything can happen. But as far as the leadership of the MILF [is concerned], we will recommend and we hope that the President will give way to our recommendation.
The Chief Minister right now enjoys full support and backing from the rank and file of the MILF.
I think there will be some minor changes in our list of nominees to the President, but as to the final composition in the list, it’s too early to tell.
If the BARMM poll is postponed, what can happen in one year?
I don’t know because your guess is as bad as my guess. I am not a lawyer, but there is going to be a constitutional challenge because the Constitution says that elections in the Philippines are going to be synchronized. It’s in the Bangsamoro Organic Law.
If the election is postponed and, within that period, Sulu is returned to BARMM. Will it change the political dynamics for 2026 election?
Precisely, yes.
You said it will be a tough fight if Gov. Sakur Tan is a candidate. The chances of UBJP winning will depend on when it will be held.
That’s right. Politics is very difficult.
You have been in government for five years. How are you?
I find it too difficult. Not in terms of governance, but in terms of politics. We’re not used to this kind of politics. We used to only decide in favor of the higher interest of the people. But now we are mostly dealing with the personal interests of people. It’s very hard.
What would you say are the biggest gains of the peace process?
The first gains of the peace process are peace in Mindanao and the development that is now seen everywhere. There is practically no more fighting between government forces and MILF forces. In terms of governance, the Bangsamoro Organic Law is already passed by Congress. It’s something that we have to nurture because there is really an essence of autonomy there. It is not a perfect autonomy, but it’s something that we can be proud of.
Electoral contests are competitions for power. Moving forward, how do you preserve the gains of the peace process?
Vigilance is one very important factor. We have to be vigilant. At the same time, we have to build institutions. The BARMM government has to be functional and efficient. What we’ve done so far is something that we have to nurture and preserve. Peace can only be maintained through peaceful means.
I hope the national government will try to also nurture what has been achieved in the peace process. If we are given a more-or-less autonomous government, the national government should, within the framework of the law, allow the Bangsamoro people to exercise that limited power given to us.
The criticism is Malacañang is favoring the MILF.
I think that’s not the precise word for it.
What is the precise word?
We are the ones who are partners of the government. It should be MILF-led because we are the ones who negotiated with the Philippine government. We signed the agreement, and it’s not natural that other people will be the ones in charge of the BARMM in the transition.
That’s why we wish for the election in 2025 to push through. After the transition, it’s free for all. Anyone can participate in the election. To us, 2025 is the time for everyone to join and participate in the election. (READ: BARMM: Amid jostling for power, will a new breed of leaders get their chance?)
We only see the transition as something that would require the MILF to be in the driver’s seat. After all, if we have fought for the people, if we have negotiated for the people, we are only entitled to be at the helm of government during the transition. After that, all the people in the area can participate in governance. – Rappler.com
This was republished with permission from the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism.
