Nika to trigger torrential rain in Aurora, several Northern Luzon provinces

Floods and landslides are likely in areas affected by Severe Tropical Storm Nika (Toraji)

MANILA, Philippines – Aurora in Central Luzon and several provinces in Northern Luzon will see intense to torrential rain from Severe Tropical Storm Nika (Toraji) in the next 24 hours, the weather bureau said late Sunday evening, November 10.

Nika was last spotted 265 kilometers east of Baler, Aurora, at 10 pm on Sunday. It continues to move west northwest at 15 kilometers per hour (km/h).

The severe tropical storm maintained its strength, with maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h. Its gustiness remains up to 135 km/h.

In a briefing past 11 pm on Sunday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Nika is now expected to intensify into a typhoon within 12 hours or by Monday morning, November 11, at the latest.

It could reach a peak intensity of 130 km/h — referring to maximum sustained winds — before making landfall in Isabela or Aurora on Monday morning or early afternoon.

Afterwards, it will cross mainland Luzon, where “a short period of weakening” is expected, then emerge over the West Philippine Sea on Monday evening, where it could re-intensify.

The following are the provinces most affected by rain from Nika, based on PAGASA’s updated rainfall advisory:

Sunday evening, November 10, to Monday evening, November 11

• Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 millimeters): Aurora, Isabela, Cagayan, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Kalinga, Apayao
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Abra, Benguet, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, La Union, Pangasinan

Monday evening, November 11, to Tuesday evening, November 12

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): La Union, Pangasinan

Floods and landslides are likely.

The weather bureau also updated the list of areas under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 11 pm on Sunday:

Signal No. 3

Storm-force winds (89 to 117 km/h), moderate to significant threat to life and property

• Isabela
• northern part of Nueva Vizcaya (Diadi, Bagabag, Quezon, Solano, Villaverde, Kasibu, Ambaguio, Bayombong)
• northern part of Quirino (Diffun, Cabarroguis, Aglipay, Maddela, Saguday)
• Kalinga
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• northern part of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan)

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• Ilocos Norte
• Ilocos Sur
• La Union
• northeastern part of Pangasinan (San Nicolas, Natividad, San Quintin, Sison, San Manuel, Umingan, Tayug)
• Apayao
• Abra
• Benguet
• northwestern, central, and southern parts of Cagayan (Solana, Iguig, Peñablanca, Tuguegarao City, Enrile, Baggao, Alcala, Amulung, Santo Niño, Rizal, Piat, Tuao, Gattaran, Lasam, Santa Praxedes, Claveria, Sanchez-Mira, Pamplona, Abulug, Allacapan, Ballesteros, Lal-lo, Aparri, Camalaniugan, Buguey, Santa Teresita)
• rest of Quirino
• rest of Nueva Vizcaya
• central part of Aurora (Dipaculao, Maria Aurora, Baler)
• northern part of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Pantabangan, Lupao, San Jose City)

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• rest of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• rest of Pangasinan
• rest of Aurora
• Tarlac
• northern and central parts of Zambales (Santa Cruz, Candelaria, Masinloc, Palauig, Iba, Botolan, Cabangan, San Marcelino, San Felipe, San Narciso)
• rest of Nueva Ecija
• Pampanga
• Bulacan
• Metro Manila
• Rizal
• eastern part of Laguna (Santa Maria, Mabitac, Pakil, Pangil, Famy, Siniloan, Paete, Kalayaan, Cavinti, Lumban, Luisiana, Santa Cruz, Magdalena, Pagsanjan, Majayjay, Liliw, Nagcarlan, Pila, Victoria)
• eastern part of Quezon (Calauag, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Pitogo, Buenavista, Pagbilao, Infanta, Lopez, Unisan, Plaridel, Quezon, Alabat, Sampaloc, Padre Burgos, Macalelon, Mauban, Perez, Agdangan, Gumaca, Atimonan, Real, General Nakar, Lucban, Tayabas City, Lucena City) including Polillo Islands
• Camarines Norte
• northern part of Camarines Sur (Siruma, Tinambac, Ocampo, Goa, Lagonoy, Milaor, Caramoan, Cabusao, Camaligan, Pili, Sipocot, Tigaon, Garchitorena, Ragay, Magarao, Del Gallego, Libmanan, Naga City, Calabanga, Bombon, Canaman, San Jose, Presentacion, Gainza, Lupi)
• Catanduanes

The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal due to Nika is Signal No. 4.

The northeasterly windflow is bringing strong to gale-force gusts to these areas, too:

Monday, November 11

• Batanes, Batangas, Lubang Island, Marinduque, Romblon, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes

Tuesday, November 12

• Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, La Union, Pangasinan

In addition, there is a moderate to high risk of storm surges in Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Zambales, Aurora, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes in the next 48 hours.

ALSO ON RAPPLER

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Sea conditions are set to worsen in the next 24 hours as Nika approaches Luzon.

Up to very rough or high seas (travel is risky for all vessels)

• Seaboards of Isabela and northern Aurora – waves up to 8 meters high
• Remaining seaboard of Aurora; northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; seaboard of
  Camarines Norte – waves up to 5.5 meters high
• Eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan; northern seaboards of Camarines Sur and Catanduanes; western seaboard of Ilocos Norte; seaboard of Ilocos Sur – waves up to 4.5 meters high

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Remaining seaboards of Catanduanes, mainland Cagayan, and Ilocos Norte; seaboard of Babuyan Islands – waves up to 4 meters high
• Seaboard of Batanes; remaining seaboards of Ilocos Region – waves up to 3.5 meters high
• Eastern seaboards of mainland Quezon, Albay, and Sorsogon; northern seaboard of Northern Samar; remaining seaboard of Polillo Islands – waves up to 3 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Eastern seaboard of Northern Samar – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Eastern seaboards of Eastern Samar and Dinagat Islands; seaboard of Kalayaan Islands – waves up to 2 meters high

Nika is the Philippines’ 14th tropical cyclone for 2024, and the second for November, coming immediately after Typhoon Marce (Yinxing), which battered Northern Luzon.

It may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Tuesday afternoon, November 12.

Meanwhile, the low pressure area (LPA) outside PAR was located 1,885 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas as of 8 pm on Sunday.

The LPA still has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression within 24 hours. Updates are expected in the coming hours and days. – Rappler.com