Typhoon Ofel (Usagi) will start bringing rain on Wednesday, November 13. Meanwhile, Man-yi may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility, possibly as a typhoon, on Thursday, November 14.
MANILA, Philippines – Ofel (Usagi) strengthened from a severe tropical storm into a typhoon before dawn on Wednesday, November 13, and may still “steadily intensify” further within 24 hours.
Meanwhile, the weather bureau released its first full, separate advisory for Tropical Storm Man-yi, which remains outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility but is expected to soon join Ofel inside PAR.
Ofel
Ofel now has maximum sustained winds of 120 kilometers per hour from the previous 110 km/h, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in a bulletin issued at 5 am on Wednesday. Its gustiness is now up to 150 km/h from 135 km/h.
Ofel was located 475 kilometers east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes, or 595 kilometers east of Daet, Camarines Norte, at 4 am. It is moving west and maintaining a speed of 25 km/h.
PAGASA updated its rainfall outlook for Ofel as of 5 am. Moderate to heavy rain will begin on Wednesday, first in the provinces of Isabela and Cagayan. Affected areas must watch out for floods and landslides.
Wednesday, November 13
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 millimeters): Isabela, Cagayan
Thursday, November 14
- Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 mm): Isabela, Cagayan
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Abra, Batanes, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Aurora, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, Quirino, Ilocos Sur
Friday, November 15
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Cagayan, Apayao, Ilocos Norte
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Batanes, Abra, Ilocos Sur
More areas were placed under Signal No. 1, also as of 5 am on Wednesday, in anticipation of strong winds from the typhoon:
- Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
- northern and central parts of Isabela (Maconacon, San Pablo, Cabagan, Santa Maria, Divilacan, Palanan, Santo Tomas, Alicia, San Mateo, Aurora, Quezon, San Mariano, Naguilian, Dinapigue, Roxas, San Guillermo, Luna, Delfin Albano, Cauayan City, Ilagan City, Angadanan, Benito Soliven, Tumauini, Reina Mercedes, San Manuel, Cabatuan, Quirino, Gamu, Mallig, Burgos)
- Apayao
- eastern part of Kalinga (Rizal, Tabuk City, Pinukpuk)
- easternmost part of Mountain Province (Paracelis)
- easternmost part of Ifugao (Alfonso Lista)
The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal due to Ofel is Signal No. 4.
PAGASA added that “the wind flow coming towards the circulation” of the typhoon will bring strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:
Wednesday, November 13
- Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes
Thursday, November 14
- Camarines Norte, eastern part of Quezon including Polillo Islands
Friday, November 15
In the next 48 hours, there is now a moderate to high risk of “life-threatening” storm surges reaching 2 to 3 meters in Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, and northern Aurora.
ALSO ON RAPPLER
PAGASA said Ofel could make landfall in Cagayan or Isabela while at its peak intensity on Thursday afternoon, November 14. Afterwards, it may “emerge over the Luzon Strait” on Friday, November 15, turn more north northwest while slowing down, then behave “erratically” during the weekend.
But the weather bureau reiterated that Ofel’s track may still change, since “two scenarios are emerging”:
- “a west northwestward track during the land crossing that is further south of the present scenario”
- “a recurving track to the right of the present forecast which will bring Ofel mainly offshore,” off the coast of Northern Luzon
In the next 24 hours, moderate to rough seas will persist in certain seaboards.
Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)
- Northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes – waves up to 3.5 meters high
Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)
- Eastern seaboards of mainland Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Albay, and Sorsogon; seaboard of Camarines Norte; northern seaboard of Camarines Sur; remaining seaboard of Catanduanes; northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar – waves up to 2.5 meters high
- Remaining seaboard of Cagayan Valley; seaboards of Ilocos Norte and Kalayaan Islands; eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar – waves up to 2 meters high
Ofel is the Philippines’ 15th tropical cyclone for 2024, and the third for November, after Marce (Yinxing) and Nika (Toraji), which both peaked as typhoons and pummeled Northern Luzon.
Man-yi or potential Pepito
Aside from Ofel, Luzon already has one more tropical cyclone to worry about, because Man-yi may enter PAR by Thursday evening. It would be given the local name Pepito.
In a separate advisory at 5 am on Wednesday, PAGASA said the tropical storm was located 2,210 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas as of 4 am. It accelerated, moving west southwest at a relatively fast 30 km/h from 20 km/h.
The weather bureau explained that Man-yi is heading southwest in the next 12 hours because its movement is being influenced by a high pressure area over the south of Japan. But it is seen to turn generally westward while approaching the PAR eastern boundary.
So far, Man-yi continues to have maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h and gustiness of up to 90 km/h. But it is projected to intensify into a severe tropical storm on Wednesday and into a typhoon by Thursday afternoon or evening, shortly before it enters PAR.
PAGASA added that it is not ruling out rapid intensification for Man-yi, and the tropical cyclone could even reach super typhoon category before hitting land.
The potential Pepito might make landfall in Northern Luzon or Central Luzon by Sunday afternoon or evening, November 17, bringing heavy rain, severe winds, and possibly storm surges.
“Regardless of the position of the landfall point, it must be emphasized that hazards on land and coastal waters may still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point or forecast confidence cone,” the weather bureau warned the public, adding that portions of Southern Luzon could be affected too, “especially if the tropical cyclone further expands in size or follows a more southerly path.”
Man-yi may also cause hazardous sea conditions in the northern and eastern seaboards of Bicol and the eastern seaboard of Eastern Visayas starting Saturday, November 16, and in the seaboard of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon on Sunday. – Rappler.com
