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Parts of Northern Luzon are placed under Signal No. 1 due to Severe Tropical Storm Ofel (Usagi) as of 11 pm on Tuesday, November 12
MANILA, Philippines – Signal No. 1 due to Severe Tropical Storm Ofel (Usagi) was raised for the first time late Tuesday evening, November 12, as the tropical cyclone further intensified over the Philippine Sea.
Ofel’s maximum sustained winds increased from 95 kilometers per hour to 110 km/h, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in a bulletin issued at 11 pm on Tuesday. Its gustiness is now up to 135 km/h from the previous 115 km/h.
Ofel may strengthen into a typhoon on Wednesday, November 13. Under PAGASA’s classification, a typhoon has maximum sustained winds of 118 to 184 km/h.
The severe tropical storm was last spotted 630 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes, at 10 pm. It slowed down a bit again, moving west northwest at 25 km/h from 30 km/h.
The following areas were placed under Signal No. 1 as of 11 pm, which means they have lead time of 36 hours to prepare for strong winds from Ofel:
- Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
- northeastern part of Isabela (Maconacon, San Pablo, Cabagan, Santa Maria, Divilacan, Palanan)
- eastern part of Apayao (Flora, Santa Marcela, Luna, Pudtol)
The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal due to Ofel is Signal No. 4.
PAGASA added that “the wind flow coming towards the circulation” of the severe tropical storm will bring strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:
Wednesday, November 13
- Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes
Thursday, November 14
- Camarines Norte, eastern part of Quezon including Polillo Islands
Friday, November 15
On Wednesday, Ofel is expected to start bringing rain to much of Northern Luzon. Floods and landslides are likely.
Wednesday evening, November 13, to Thursday evening, November 14
- Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 millimeters): Isabela, Cagayan
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Apayao, Abra, Batanes, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Aurora, Ilocos Norte, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, Quirino, Ilocos Sur
Thursday evening, November 14, to Friday evening, November 15
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Cagayan, Apayao, Ilocos Norte
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Batanes, Abra, Ilocos Sur
In the next 48 hours, there is also a minimal to moderate risk of storm surges “with peak surge heights of 1 to 2 meters” in Ilocos Norte, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, and northern Aurora.
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PAGASA said Ofel could make landfall in Cagayan or Isabela while at its peak intensity on Thursday afternoon or evening, November 14. Afterwards, it may “emerge over the Luzon Strait,” shift more northwest on Friday, November 15, then behave “erratically” during the weekend.
But the weather bureau reiterated that Ofel’s track may still change, since “two scenarios are emerging”:
- “a west northwestward track with a land crossing that is further south of the present scenario”
- “a recurving track to the right of the present forecast which will bring Ofel mainly offshore,” off the coast of Northern Luzon
In the next 24 hours, moderate to rough seas are expected in seaboards affected by Ofel.
Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)
- Northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes – waves up to 3 meters high
Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)
- Eastern seaboards of mainland Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Albay, and Sorsogon; seaboard of Camarines Norte; northern seaboard of Camarines Sur; remaining seaboard of Catanduanes; northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar – waves up to 2.5 meters high
- Remaining seaboard of Cagayan Valley; seaboards of Ilocos Norte and Kalayaan Islands; eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar – waves up to 2 meters high
Ofel is the Philippines’ 15th tropical cyclone for 2024, and the third for November, after Marce (Yinxing) and Nika (Toraji), which both peaked as typhoons and pummeled Northern Luzon.
PAGASA also continues to monitor Tropical Storm Man-yi, which remains outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility but may enter PAR in the coming days.
Man-yi was last spotted 2,435 kilometers east of southeastern Luzon at 8 pm on Tuesday. It slowed down, moving southwest at 20 km/h from 30 km/h.
The tropical storm still has maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h and gustiness of up to 90 km/h. – Rappler.com
