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Super Typhoon Julian (Krathon) may be downgraded to a typhoon before its possible reentry into the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Wednesday, October 2
MANILA, Philippines – Super Typhoon Julian (Krathon) began to weaken near the Taiwan Strait while remaining outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday evening, October 1.
Julian’s maximum sustained winds eased to 185 kilometers per hour, from its peak intensity of 195 km/h. Its gustiness is also down to 230 km/h from the previous 240 km/h.
As of 10 pm on Tuesday, the super typhoon was located 270 kilometers west northwest of Itbayat, Batanes, still moving north northwest at a slow pace.
Julian had exited PAR at 9 am on Tuesday, but it is expected to reenter on Wednesday, October 2, and head for Taiwan. Taiwan is within PAR.
Based on the bulletin of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) at 11 pm on Tuesday, Julian may recurve northeast on Wednesday morning, then reenter PAR on Wednesday afternoon or evening.
On Wednesday, Batanes and Babuyan Islands will still have moderate to heavy rain (50 to 100 millimeters) due to Julian.
There are still areas under Signal No. 1 as well, because of strong winds from the super typhoon. Here is the list as of 11 pm on Tuesday:
- Batanes
- Babuyan Islands
- mainland Cagayan
- Apayao
- Kalinga
- Abra
- Mountain Province
- Ilocos Norte
- Ilocos Sur
The highest tropical cyclone wind signal raised due to Julian was Signal No. 4 in Batanes and part of Babuyan Islands. While Julian did not make landfall, it had passed very close to these areas.
For coastal waters, very rough seas will persist in the seaboard of Batanes (waves up to 5 meters high) as well as the seaboard of Babuyan Islands and the northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte (waves up to 4.5 meters high). Travel is risky for most types of vessels.
Moderate to rough seas are expected in the remaining seaboard of Ilocos Norte (waves up to 4 meters high), the seaboard of Ilocos Sur (waves up to 3.5 meters high), the remaining seaboards of the Ilocos Region and the seaboard of mainland Cagayan (waves up to 3 meters high), and the seaboard of Zambales and the seaboard of Isabela (waves up to 2.5 meters high). Small vessels should not venture out to sea.
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After entering PAR again, Julian could make landfall in Taiwan’s southwestern coast on Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning, October 3.
Afterwards, the tropical cyclone may emerge over the sea east of Taiwan on Thursday morning or afternoon, then leave PAR for the second and final time on Thursday evening or Friday morning, October 4.
But PAGASA also said: “At present, there is no dominant weather system influencing the general motion of Julian. As such, considerable shifts in the track forecast of succeeding bulletins are not ruled out.”
The weather bureau added that Julian is likely to weaken further, especially once it hits Taiwan’s mountainous terrain. It could be downgraded to a typhoon within 12 hours, or by Wednesday morning, and to a severe tropical storm on Friday.
Julian is the Philippines’ 10th tropical cyclone for 2024 and sixth tropical cyclone for September alone. – Rappler.com
