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The tropical depression could intensify into a tropical storm and enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Monday, November 4
MANILA, Philippines – A low pressure area that formed outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) developed into a tropical depression at 2 pm on Sunday, November 3.
As of 4 pm, the tropical depression was still outside PAR, located 1,315 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas.
It is moving northwest at a relatively fast 30 kilometers per hour (km/h), and at that speed, could enter PAR by Monday, November 4.
Once inside PAR, it will be the country’s 13th tropical cyclone for 2024 and will be given the local name Marce.
So far, the tropical depression has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in an advisory released past 5 pm on Sunday that the potential Marce will keep moving northwest until Tuesday, November 5, “before it begins to slow down significantly while turning more northward.”
Starting Wednesday, November 6, it could head north, then west “at a slow pace” over the Philippine Sea east of extreme Northern Luzon. But PAGASA said there is “high uncertainty” in this part of the forecast — and it is “highly likely to change” — because there are currently two possible scenarios:
- the tropical cyclone will move more toward the west, in the direction of extreme Northern Luzon or mainland Luzon
- the tropical cyclone will “move erratically” over the Philippine Sea east of extreme Northern Luzon
In terms of intensity, it could strengthen into a tropical storm before entering PAR; a severe tropical storm by early Tuesday; and a typhoon by early Wednesday.
As for rainfall, PAGASA said the tropical depression might enhance the surge of the northeasterly windflow, or winds coming from the northeast.
The northeasterly windflow and the trough or extension of the potential Marce could then trigger rain in extreme Northern Luzon and the eastern portion of Luzon beginning Monday or Tuesday.
But the weather bureau warned the public that if the tropical cyclone’s forecast track changes “to a more landfalling scenario,” it may directly cause heavy to torrential rain in Northern Luzon starting Thursday, November 7, or Friday, November 8.
Floods and landslides are possible, especially in hazard-prone areas and in areas which already received significant rain in recent days, as the soil may already be saturated there. Northern Luzon was affected by Leon (Kong-rey), a super typhoon at its peak, in the final days of October.
PAGASA added that conditions in the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the western and eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon would worsen if the tropical cyclone enhances the northeasterly windflow in the coming days.
The weather bureau noted that the northeasterly windflow is already causing moderate to rough seas in the seaboards of Northern Luzon.
ALSO ON RAPPLER
Ahead of the tropical cyclone’s entry into PAR, the entire country is only seeing isolated rain on Sunday.
Batanes and Babuyan Islands are affected by the northeasterly windflow, while Bicol, Eastern Visayas, Aurora, Quezon, and the rest of Cagayan Valley are affected by the easterlies or warm winds coming from the Pacific Ocean.
In the rest of the Philippines, localized thunderstorms are the cause of isolated rain showers. – Rappler.com
