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The potential Ofel is already a tropical storm ahead of its expected entry into the Philippine Area of Responsibility
MANILA, Philippines – The tropical depression outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), which is expected to be the country’s next tropical cyclone after Severe Tropical Storm Nika (Toraji), intensified into a tropical storm on Monday evening, November 11.
It now has maximum sustained winds of 65 kilometers per hour from the previous 55 km/h, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in an advisory at 11 pm on Monday. Its gustiness also went up to 80 km/h from 70 km/h.
The tropical storm was located 1,185 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas as of 10 pm, moving west and maintaining its relatively fast pace of 35 km/h.
It is projected to enter PAR by Tuesday morning, November 12, and will be given the local name Ofel.
It will continue to “steadily intensify in the next three days.” By Wednesday, November 13, it may already be a typhoon.
The potential Ofel might make landfall in Northern Luzon or Central Luzon on Thursday afternoon or evening, November 14, although its track “may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone” shown in the image below.
The potential Ofel could also hit land “at or near its peak intensity.”
“Although it is too early to exactly determine the specific areas to be affected by certain hazards, areas in Northern Luzon are at risk of heavy rainfall, severe wind, and, possibly, storm surge inundation from this tropical cyclone which may cause considerable impacts,” PAGASA said in its advisory.
“Furthermore, the eastern portions of Central and Southern Luzon may also be further affected, especially if the tropical cyclone further expands in size or follows a path south of the more likely path (but within the forecast confidence cone).”
The tropical cyclone may also cause risky sea conditions in the northern and eastern seaboards of Bicol and the eastern seaboard of Eastern Visayas beginning mid-Wednesday. Similar conditions are likewise possible in the seaboard of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon from late Wednesday to early Saturday, November 16. – Rappler.com
