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Tropical Storm Nika (Toraji) may intensify into a severe tropical storm by Sunday, November 10. PAGASA is not ruling out rapid intensification into a typhoon as well.
MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Storm Nika (Toraji) continued to intensify on Saturday evening, November 9, while over the Philippine Sea east of the Bicol region.
Nika now has maximum sustained winds of 75 kilometers per hour from the previous 65 km/h. Its gustiness is already up to 90 km/h from 80 km/h.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 11 pm bulletin on Saturday that Nika may further strengthen into a severe tropical storm by Sunday, November 10.
PAGASA added that it is not ruling out the possibility of Nika rapidly intensifying into a typhoon while still over the Philippine Sea on Sunday, particularly when it would already be east of the province of Quezon.
As of 10 pm on Saturday, Nika was located 625 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes, or 750 kilometers east of Daet, Camarines Norte. It is still moving west, but at a slower pace of 20 km/h from the relatively fast 35 km/h.
Catanduanes will be the first province to experience moderate to heavy rain within 24 hours, based on PAGASA’s updated rainfall outlook for the tropical storm.
Saturday evening, November 9, to Sunday evening, November 10
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 millimeters): Catanduanes
Sunday evening, November 10, to Monday evening, November 11
- Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 mm): Isabela, Aurora
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Cagayan, Quirino
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Cordillera Administrative Region, Nueva Vizcaya, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes
Monday evening, November 11, to Tuesday evening, November 12
- Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 mm): Apayao, Kalinga
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Cagayan, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): La Union, Benguet, Aurora, rest of Cagayan Valley
The weather bureau stressed that Nika may cause floods and landslides.
For winds, Signal No. 1 was raised in more areas at 11 pm on Saturday. The following areas, all in Luzon, will have strong winds from the tropical storm:
- Isabela
- Quirino
- eastern part of Nueva Vizcaya (Kasibu, Alfonso Castañeda, Dupax del Norte, Diadi, Quezon)
- Aurora
- eastern part of Nueva Ecija (Bongabon, Gabaldon, General Tinio, Laur)
- eastern part of Bulacan (Doña Remedios Trinidad, Norzagaray)
- eastern part of Quezon (Calauag, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Pitogo, San Andres, Buenavista, San Francisco, Pagbilao, Infanta, Lopez, Catanauan, Mulanay, Unisan, General Luna, Plaridel, Quezon, Alabat, Sampaloc, Padre Burgos, Macalelon, Mauban, Perez, Agdangan, Gumaca, Atimonan, Real, San Narciso, General Nakar) including Polillo Islands
- Camarines Norte
- Camarines Sur
- Catanduanes
- northeastern part of Albay (Malinao, Tiwi, Bacacay, Tabaco City, Malilipot, Rapu-Rapu)
The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal due to Nika is Signal No. 3. But PAGASA is not ruling out the raising of Signal No. 4 if Nika reaches typhoon status.
The northeasterly windflow is also seen to bring strong to gale-force gusts to Batanes and the northern part of Cagayan, including Babuyan Islands, on Sunday.
In the next 24 hours, sea conditions will remain moderate to rough.
Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)
- Seaboards of northern Aurora and Camarines Norte; northern seaboards of Camarines Sur and Catanduanes – waves up to 3.5 meters high
- Seaboard of Isabela; seaboard of northern Aurora; northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; eastern seaboard of Catanduanes – waves up to 3 meters high
Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)
- Eastern seaboards of Babuyan Islands, Cagayan, Albay, and Sorsogon; northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar; western seaboard of Ilocos Norte – waves up to 2.5 meters high
- Remaining seaboards of Ilocos Norte, Babuyan Islands, Cagayan, Aurora, Polillo Islands, and Camarines Sur; eastern seaboards of Quezon, Eastern Samar, and Dinagat Islands – waves up to 2 meters high
ALSO ON RAPPLER
PAGASA expects Nika to make landfall in Isabela or Aurora on Monday afternoon or evening, November 11. But the weather bureau emphasized that “hazards may still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point or forecast confidence cone,” so Luzon in general must prepare for the tropical cyclone.
Before hitting land, Nika may reach its peak intensity. “A short period of weakening” is expected when Nika crosses the landmass of Luzon, but it will probably remain a severe tropical storm during that time, the weather bureau said.
Nika is the Philippines’ 14th tropical cyclone for 2024, and the second for November, coming immediately after Typhoon Marce (Yinxing), which battered Northern Luzon.
Nika could leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday, November 12.
Meanwhile, the low pressure area (LPA) outside PAR was last spotted 2,505 kilometers east of northeastern Mindanao at 10 pm on Saturday.
The LPA still has a medium chance of developing into a tropical depression within 24 hours.
PAGASA Weather Specialist Grace Castañeda said the weather disturbance may enter PAR by Tuesday. – Rappler.com
